Whittier North Carolina Personal Weather Station - Area Forecast Discussion

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Whittier North Carolina Personal Weather Station - Current Conditions Summary
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Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for <?php print $myNWS ?> NWS Office
000
FXUS64 KMRX 270746
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE AREA. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ALOFT...SOME SNOW HAS BEGUN
TO MIX WITH RAIN AT THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FT.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OR HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL ALOFT. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS SYNOPTIC LIFT PEAKS BETWEEN 09-12Z.
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...TOTALS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON
ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS...WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO 1 INCH IN THE
LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY AREAS IN THE TRI-CITIES/ABINGDON METRO. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z...LIFT AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL HAVE MENTIONABLE
POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST TN AND PORTIONS OF SW
VIRGINIA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT SNOW THERE. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WILL
OCCUR GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE LOWER 20S IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODS OF ZONAL FLOW OR SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER
RUNS AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SUNDAY. STILL SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ADVERTISED JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY REGION...SO IT LOOKS WISE TO STAY DRY HERE
FOR THOSE PERIODS.

RAIN CHANCES DO APPEAR NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OUT TO WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS...PLUS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK E-SE
UPLSOPE FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE NE STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WOULD BET ON MOST LIKELY PERIOD AROUND MONDAY TIMEFRAME
FOR SHOWERS WHERE GRIDS WILL CARRY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS. LITTLE
CHANGES MADE OVERALL.

STRAYED A BIT FROM THE COOL MOS MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN WE
SHOULD SEE STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIPS EAST TO ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPS
LOOKED VERY GOOD FOR ALL BUT SUNDAY...WHERE I KEPT MAXES IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER GFSX/ECMX MOS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             45  25  47  34 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  43  23  43  30 /  30   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  24  44  31 /  20   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  20  39  26 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     JOHNSON-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP/TG

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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