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Whittier North Carolina Personal Weather Station - Area Forecast Discussion

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Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for <?php print $myNWS ?> NWS Office
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. GFS AND NAM MODELS REVEAL SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BY KEEPING
POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. GFS MODEL INDICATES SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO MAXES ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...VERY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE SHORT TERMS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO FURTHER MOVE OFF TO
OUR NE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH DUE
TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE TROUGH. THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WITH CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK...MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY AND CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GRADUAL WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
BY DAY 7. EXPECT SEVERAL MORNINGS AND EVENINGS TO HAVE A FALL-LIKE
FEEL TO THEM AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  85  59  75 /   0  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  83  58  72 /   0  40  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  84  57  72 /   0  40  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  82  55  70 /   0  50  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/SR

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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