Horizontal Navigation Menu CSS3 Css3Menu.com

Whittier North Carolina Personal Weather Station - Area Forecast Discussion

WNCweather.net Whittier North Carolinal Weather Station
   Find us on Facebook    Whittier North Carolina Personal Weather Station - Current Conditions Summary
Updated  
 
    Follow WNCWeather on Twitter    

Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for <?php print $myNWS ?> NWS Office
000
FXUS64 KMRX 241915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS TN VALLEY TONIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES NE
INTO THE W OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN
UP OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
INSTABILITY MEAGER BUT GOOD LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 25/09-25-15Z ACROSS MRX CWA. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS...COLD FRONT...WIND SHIFT...WILL MOVE THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER 25/18Z. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARM
TONIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK COLD OR
NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THIS PERIOD WILL START
OUT DRY AND QUIET...BUT WILL TURN MESSY FOR ITS SECOND HALF.  AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.  SATURDAY LOOKS
BEAUTIFUL...WITH SUNDAY BEGINING THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
BRINGING WARMER AIR AND AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD MAKE FOR
A WARM DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MESSINESS DEALS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO HANG IN THE UPPER MISS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH HANGING IN OUR AREA.  WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW...TIMING OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH COULD BE AN ADVENTURE.

ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE MOVING IN...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
GETTING STRUNG OUT AS THE ANCHORING SURFACE LOW STAYS IN THE PLAINS
AND ANY STORMS MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST/MIDDLE TN GET FARTHER
AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DYNAMICS.  TUESDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK
MORE AND MORE INTERESTING NOW...AS THE SYSTEM KICKS EAST...THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE HEADING THIS WAY AS WELL...BUT MODELS LOOKING LIKE
THEY WANT A LOT OF PRECIP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE
DYNAMICS...SO IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO GET GOOD HEATING DURING THE
DAY...ALSO LOOKS LIKE TIMING MIGHT BE BETTER FOR WEST/MIDDLE TN
DURING MAX HEATING AGAIN ON TUESDAY...AND THEN THE STORMS WOULD MOVE
IN HERE TUESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT.  AT ANY RATE...FOR NOW OUR SEVERE
THREATS LOOK PRETTY LIMITED THIS FAR EAST.  FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS...AIR
MASS GETS HIGH MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH VALUES >= 1.2
INCHES FROM 06Z TUE THROUGH 06Z WED.  LOOKING LIKE WE MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON QPF MORE THAN SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS POINT.  WPC
QPF FORECAST HAS HEAVIEST AXIS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH A "HOLE"
IN THE 7 DAY QPF OVER MUCH OF MIDDLE AND EAST TN...BUT ENSEMBLES
PROBABLILITIES HINT THAT THE AXIS COULD MOVE MORE DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA.  EVEN THE AXIS AS IS COULD POSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR MORE-
PRONE HYDRO STREAMS AT SOUTH CHICAMAUGA CREEK NEAR KCHA AND THE
RIVER STRETCHES NEAR NEWPORT.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING DUE TO CUT-OFF LOW`S FICKLE
MOVEMENT...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCHING FOR CHANGES IN TIMING AND
ALIGNMENT OF PARAMETERS AS TO WHETHER THIS SCENARIO HOLDS.

BY WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
PAST US AND COOLER AIR WILL BY MOVING IN...BUT THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO HANG IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SEND MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER
US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE A DRY SLOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY AROUND THURSDAY...BUT TIMING A DRY SLOT THIS FAR
OUT IN THIS SCENARIO IS RISKY...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
IN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO IN HAND...WILL GO LOWER
WITH THE TUESDAY MAX TEMP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
THERE SHOULD BE NO SUN ALL DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  74  45  82 /  70  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  73  46  80 /  80  80  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  73  45  80 /  80  40  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  72  42  77 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/GM

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Never base important decisions that could result in harm to people or property on this weather information.

GeoURL

Weather-Display Software
www.awekas.at

USA Weather Finder Strike Star Logo Weather Topsites
Member of Weather Underground Southeastern Weather Network Citizen Weather Observer Program

Weather Cam Sites
WNCweather.net RSS Channel